Beware of the Fact Checkers, George.

Be careful when you say something in this internet age.  No sooner do you say something than it is being “fact checked” by various organisations. 

So when George Osbourne happily trumpeted the Treasury report warning of households being £4,300 a year worse off if we left the EU, he must have known it would be scrutinised in great depth.  So why did he say something so stupid, and was, as Fraser Neslon said, “simply breath-taking dishonesty“?

Others describe Osbourne with similar scathing terms.  Andrew Lilico says the Treasury report is “irrelevant” and Allister Heath describes as “shameful, undoubtedly the worst piece of research from a government department in years”. 

The BBC’s Reality Check is scathing:

“it is very difficult to predict anything in 15 years… it is a bit odd that the Treasury has used ONS forecasts for what will happen to population by 2030, without considering what difference leaving the EU would make… The precise figure [households £4,300 worse off] is questionable and probably not particularly helpful”

Channel 4’s well respected FactCheck goes further:

“It’s not quite right to say that Brexit “will cost each family £4,300”, since the actual impact on household incomes from a fall in GDP would almost certainly be lower… The Treasury paper offers a pessimistic view of what might happen to Britain if we left the EU”.

Ian Duncan Smith joined in:  “Also remember at the spending review in December 2015 the Treasury said we would have £27bn more in taxes by the end of the Parliament. By January, one month later, this forecast was revised down dramatically. If they can't forecast one month ahead, how reliable can the forecast be for 15 years ahead”.

So why did the Chancellor expose himself to such ridicule?  I don't know either.