The attack dogs are out.

You know Mrs May is on manoeuvres when the attack dogs come out.  Yesterday it was on the economy.  All her faithful entourage wailed gloom and doom.    The BBC.  The Bank of England. They all talked about the worst case scenario as if that was what would happen.  as we saw in yesterdays blog, it won't.  But you can see why she goes into attack mode.  Everything they have worked towards could be undone if it was proved to be wrong.  We might actually leave the EU.   Horror of horrors! 

The problem is, they use only one set of data.  Very conveniently it is the set of data they use that fits the narrative they want.   

Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab summed it up well in the quote he gave to yesterday’s Telegraph:   

"There is an economic credibility gap with all these Treasury-led forecasts, based on their track record of failure, the questionable assumptions they rely on, and the inherent challenge of making reliable long-term forecasts. Politically, it looks like a rehash of Project Fear. 

People expect to be inspired, not scared witless into deferring to the government. Whenever Whitehall make forecasts for leaving the EU on WTO terms, it's always the same. 

They rely on the most pessimistic assumptions, and airbrush out the opportunities of leaving with full regulatory control and the ability to strike free trade deals around the world."      

They’re not telling lies.  But they are not telling the truth either.  They are, as is the BBC, certainly being somewhat disingenuous.  

And it is the same with Civil Servants who should know better.   

Take the recent ‘Cross-Whitehall report’ estimated that exiting the customs union would cost the UK economy by between 1.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent of GDP (£32 – £154 billion) over the next fifteen years.   

These figures include effects of likely free trade agreements (FTA) with non-EU countries, migration, and deregulation. In reality, the UK would actually gain something like 7% per cent of GDP (£140 billion), taking into account all these factors.    

This blunder amounting to nearly 15 per cent of GDP (£300 billion) has been exposed in a new report by experts from Economists for Free Trade.   The mistakes the civil servants have made with regard to the costs of leaving the customs union account for almost 11 per cent of GDP – or £220 billion.    

And you wonder why people are saying this is an establishment stitch up.

Not smart.