To be fair to the Bank of England they are saying it's all based on assumptions. But just read the assumptions and you quickly realise something is not right.
The key ones are:
1. The UK reverts to World Trade Organisation
rules. Well under leaving without a deal
with the EU we would have an immediate deal with the rest of the world, including
the EU, through WTO. So far so good. No serious economic impact given 60% of our trade is already on WTO.
2. No new trade deals are implemented by 2022. Maybe there will be maybe there won’t be. But one thing is sure, businesses will be wanting the "will be" scenario. Only a spiteful EU could get in the way. So it’s really pretty daft to assume there will not be deals. So again, perhaps a hiccup. But seriously, businesses love to trade.
3. The UK loses all access to existing trade agreements between the EU and third countries. Now, this is where it really does stretch the bounds of probability. Are they suggesting that all the current trade deals we have with non EU countries will stop? Well that’s what they have based this on. And there is actually nothing to stop the UK trading with the EU under WTO from day one. Indeed, it would be illegal for the EU to not permit it. So don't worry, you will still be able to get your Mercedes or Audi.
4. Severe disruption at borders because of customs checks. Really? Why? Today goods arrive and are cleared into the UK form all over the world in seconds under WTO. All the paperwork is done days, even weeks before it arrives in the UK, and vise versa. So why should what already happens stop happening? It won't.
5. Migration reverses from 150,000 a year to falling by 100,000 a year. Well, who knows. But in the big scheme of things it’s a pretty small problem compared to losing all our trade under point 3.
Really, the BBC should stop treating us as idiots.
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