There is no cliff edge.

Those who say otherwise aught to be ashamed. But it goes on.  Scare story after scare story.  Project Fear Mk 2.   

I have absolutely no problem with people who advocate staying in the EU for political reasons.  They want a United States of Europe.  If that is their bag, fine.  Let them argue their case.  It’s a legitimate stance to take and argue for.       

What they can’t argue is that leaving the EU is like a cliff edge.  And the more rational pro EU supporters know that.  Nor would such pro political EU people argue that it is a disaster economically to leave the EU.  They know it won’t be.  It is because they take a principled stance on the political argument, i.e., they think we should be part of a political union that controls everything from foreign affairs, our military, our taxation, our immigration policy, from the EU.       

The more desperate anti Leave people are not so cerebral in their argument.  It’s all cliff edge this, black hole that.  That they try this on with a straight face is amazing.       

Let’s look at the facts.         

First of all, any informed and impartial look would show that there is in reality no such thing as a “no deal”, “cliff edge” or “crashing out”.  It simply doesn’t exist.  And people who talk in these terms should consider the damage their words are causing.       

Putting it simply, if the EU rejects a free-trade deal with the UK, what is described as no deal is not in fact a no deal.  It’s a process where we move to a different deal: trading under WTO rules.   

And that deal is already on the table. So next time someone says to you we will leave with no deal, gently remind that that this is not true, it is simply no deal with the EU.   WTO is a deal already in place.       

The protectionist EU is already losing out to countries that are working under WTO whose figures suggest UK exports to 111 countries under WTO rules grew at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9 per cent, three times faster than exports to the 14 other early members of the single market between 1993 and 2015.       

And what of trading with the EU?  Those trading with the EU on WTO terms saw 135 per cent real-terms growth in goods exports - much faster than the exports of the founder EU members to each other. Most importantly, inside the customs union, UK trade has been steadily declining with the EU since the global financial crisis.     

With facts like that, why would anyone argue we there is an economic reason for staying in the EU? There isn't.  As David Davis points out, opportunity is round every corner once we are out of the protectionist EU.

So if there were to be a second referendum the question should be, do you want to be part of a declining economic power or do you want to be a truly global trading nation again.  Given we are the 5th largest economy in the world, I think the future looks rather bright being out of the EU.