Wednesday, August 01, 2018

Once upon a time..........

Once upon a time, as all good stories begin, in a land and time far far away, there were projections of how many jobs would be lost in the financial services if the people of the UK decided to vote to leave the EU.  It was big numbers.  One widely cited report published in 2016 by Oliver Wyman it was estimated that losses could eventually be as high as 75,000.    Back in these olden days Xavier Rolet, the former chief executive of the London Stock Exchange, predicted job losses of over 200,000.  

Changed days.  Wind forward to 1st August 2018.  It’s a different story now with the much touted scare story of an exodus of bankers and financiers from London has not materialised. One interested observer notes that only 1,600 jobs have been earmarked to move.  That’s quite a different number from 200,000.  

So, what’s happened?  Well, like all the other scare stories and fake news peddled by the then chancellor and a host of others who should have known better, the world simply didn’t believe them.  Neither did the people of the UK who voted to leave the EU.      

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt told the Evening Standard “Probably the City, as the financier of European business, is the central point to make here.  If it became harder for European businesses to access finance, that is far from trivial.  The City itself would find a way to thrive, whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.”  Interestingly he continued, “If it became a low-tax, low-regulation, offshoot fully outside the EU, it would find a way to thrive in those circumstances. But for European businesses the impact would be profound.”    

And indeed it will, as Lord Mayor Charles Bowman observes in POLITICO, the City’s future will be defined less by Brexit than new developments like the rise of financial technology, or fintech with fintech firms already accounting for around 50,000 jobs in the City out of a total of around 483,000, according to figures from the City of London Corporation.   If we are to lose some of [the existing] jobs, they are going to be the jobs that probably in five-to-10 years’ time are not going to be around, or are not going to be in the same shape or form as today — because the sort of joining of technology with finance at this moment in time is creating a very different dynamic,” he said.   

So Brexit a big problem for the City?  Well, only if people make it one.   

But as in some stories, sometimes a baddy comes along and tries to destroy everything good.  You can decide who the baddies are this time that want to destroy a democratically voted for Brexit.

No comments: