Friday, May 01, 2015

They think it's all over, it is now. Almost.

Have you event noticed how some football teams develop a habit of conceding a goal in extra time?  After watching last night’s three way Leaders Question time, an interrogation by a balanced and clearly knowledgeable audience, the same thing happened.  It started with Edward Miliband talking about zero hours contracts but then completely failing to answer the man who ran a tourist business who, because it’s a seasonal business, couldn’t dream of taking on people full time.  But he employs lots on zero hours contracts.  The way Edward looked quizzically at him as if to say, what kind of bizarre question is that, and the way he answered him was so alarming for anyone who is in business.  He just didn’t understand how the productive sector of the economy that actually creates the wealth that allows us to have hospitals, police, army, international aid works.  He just doesn’t get it.

One problem with Edward is he preoccupied with the wrong things.  Of course inequality is wrong.  It’s bad for a society.  And he is right to talk about it.  But his prescription of attacking those who actually create the wealth is simplistic and ultimately will be found wanting.  His prescription is an increase in taxes such as restoring the 50p level for high earners and imposing an ill-conceived mansion tax.  There needs to be balance and he displays none.

But Edwards other problem is he has too often found himself on the wrong side of the argument.  If you look at an earlier blog on energy prices you see he doesn’t understand how they work.  Maybe it is a sector badly set up and regulated.  But at least understand how they are set up before trying to change them.  He promised to freeze energy prices shortly before world prices collapsed. So we would be paying higher prices for oil than the market was selling it for at the moment under his plan.

Then there are the banks.  Yes, I know in partnership with Gordon Brown they brought us to our knees.  And David Cameron’s flourishing of the Liam Byrne letter reminded us of that.  But you need considered reform.  What’s the point in taking the moral high ground then losing the contribution the sector makes to the UK economy. In 2014, financial and insurance services contributed £126.9 billion in gross value added (GVA) to the UK economy, 8.0% of the UK's total GVA.  The sector's contribution to UK jobs is around 3.4%.   And in 2013/14, the banking sector alone contributed £21.4 billion to tax revenue.  That’s a lot of money a future chancellor is going to have to replace if banks decided to up sticks and go to Geneva.  Now, I’m not defending the banks.  They and Gordon Brown caused the mess.   I’m saying, have a plan.

At least New Labour understood that markets can be harnessed to progressive outcomes.  It's interesting that at a time of economic challenge, when we look over our shoulder and think we could have been Greece or Spain, we should even want to think about upsetting the applecart and give the guy who was Gordon Browns right hand man as they drove us to the edge of the cliff a chance at the wheel again so soon.  Do we really want a deficit and over spending denier at the wheel? That's what Mr Miliband was last night.

Interestingly, there seems to be a realisation that the last five years actually have been pretty stable. The FT come out and suggest that “at this delicate moment, the best outcome would be a continuation of the 2010 coalition between the Conservatives and Lib Dems…The country would benefit from the countervailing force of Lib Dem moderation at Westminster. In seats where the Lib Dems are the incumbent or the main challenger, we would vote tactically for them.”

And the problem for Labour is, it’s their own fault they will fail in this election.  The primary thing that the British people are waking up to is Mr Miliband has not offered a credible economic prospectus and would apply a brake on enterprise.  So a vote for Labour would bring about a poorer nation that ultimately would bring about more inequality, the verything that that Edward is seeking to get rid of.

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