I don't understand.

There are two imponderables in the current General Election campaign that are difficult to fathom.

The first is that the SNP are are miles ahead in Scotland and steaming to victory.  The second is that the Conservatives are not miles ahead in the polls in the rest of the UK and steaming to victory.  Neither makes sense.

Gerald Warner remarked recently: “Scottish nationalism is no longer a constitutional agenda: it has been transmogrified into a spiritual cult, an esoteric experience that elevates devotees far above sublunary considerations such as gross domestic product, public sector borrowing requirement or revenue inflow. Its dwindling essays into policy making are now a form of transcendental meditation.”  I know it feels like that when aggressive Nats dominate Hustings. But I’m not so sure I’d give it cult status. 

But economic of the madhouse status seems entirely reasonable.  SNP’s fiscal autonomy would leave £9bn gap in Scotland's finances, says IFS, not known for their exaggeration of anything.  And that’s a big hole that has to be filled by someone somewhere.  That a gap that would only be closed if growth in Scotland were to be double that predicted for the UK as a whole.  And that’s going to happen?  Aye right.   The answer by those who don’t understand the basis of how businesses work is always the same.  The taxpayer either in the form of people or businesses.  They just don’t get it.  Taking money away from the productive sector to pay for the unproductive only ever has one out come.  Failure. And greater poverty for the people who are the poorest.

The IFS observation note also suggests that Scottish revenues per person would need to grow by more than twice as much as forecast for the UK as a whole – 4.5% in real terms per year – by 2020 in order to offset the gap.  Ouch, as the taxpayers will be saying.

I’m not partial to quoting Scottish Labour as their handling of the economy under the last Labour administration didn’t exactly go well.  But Scottish Labour’s deputy leader, Kezia Dugdale, did have a point when she said the latest projections by IFS were proof of her party’s argument that the SNP manifesto “signed up to massive spending cuts that would make even the Tories blush”. 

So why are SNP sailing so high in the polls when, by any reasonable analysis, their figures just don’t add up?

And so what of the Conservatives?  Why are they not miles ahead?  Unemployment down.  Employment up.  Growth (in spite of the blip today) running at 2.5%, miles ahead of the G8 countries.  Crime down.  If the voters are asked who would make the better leader in a dangerous world, David Cameron wins easily.  If they are asked which party would be better for their families’ prosperity, the Tories have a comfortable lead.  So why are the Tories not ten points ahead?

We have but a week and 2 days left to ponder these questions.