A tarnished vote

A good friend of mine summed up very nicely what has happend.

"The game was muddied over the last couple of weeks so that ultimately I don’t think many people (apart from the resolute yes or no people) knew really what they were voting for … hence a reversion by many (in my opinion) to traditional party political values.  ‘Job done’ by the Westminster trio + Brown!

The white paper was in circulation for many months and allowed scrutiny on every level by both proponents and opponents of independence.  Better Together could choose their targets (as it was never going to be a perfect manifesto with all the answers), and batter away at it.  The late intervention and “Vow” was never given that same level of scrutiny – it came after purdah, and there weren’t actually any tangible elements to it!

In this sense, while democracy may have been a winner on many levels (85% voter turnout etc), it feels rather tarnished that such an intervention could have been such an apparently crucial game-changer."

I think my friend has got it 100% right.  Mind you, he is my accountant so I'm rather pleased his sums add up.

Who decides what kind of devolution

English votes for English laws.  Has a certain ring to about it. 

I’m assuming all these MPs representing English constituencies will therefore not take part in a debate and vote on what form more devolution to Scotland should take.   

That surely will mean that only those representing Scottish constituencies in Westminster will be able to vote on which of the many and very different options of more devolution for Scotland is selected.

Or will it be imposed by the English MPs?

What actually did we vote for?

Well, it’s the morning after….

Two weeks ago we had one question on the ballot paper.  Should Scotland be an independent country. Yes or No.  That was till two weeks ago.  It was nice straight forward and simple.  Yes or No.

But that actually was not what people were voting on yesterday.  If people think it was, they need to think again.  The status quo was not an option according to the three party leaders and the shadow of Gordon Brown.  What we ended up with was should Scotland be an independent country or do you want Labours vision of Devo, or the Conservative vision of Devo, or the LibDems vision of Devo, or Patrick Harvey’s vision of Devo.  Or indeed, the SNPs vision of Devo.  All very very different.  Then there is the Plaid Cymru version of they want for Wales in this new Devo friendly world.  And the Cornish version.  And the English regions.  

Are we going to be given another vote to decide the options of Devo that Westminster is going to offer us.  It would hardly be fair of have one version which few may support being implemented while another version many would support stays in the sidings. Or will they just impose it.

Oh what a foolish thing the three party leaders and the shadow of Gordon Brown did by intervening. One rogue poll.  They panicked. Showed amazing lack of judgement. They made promises that broke the Edinburgh Agreement.  And they made promises that have now saddled the UK with one massive problem.  All the more remarkable as there was only one of the polls that suggested a No vote. I think most of us expected a very close, but ultimately No vote.  They have given away, or more accurately, have said they will give away, more powers from Westminster. It’s going to be an interesting time.

So if someone tells me they voted No, I will remind them that voting No actually did not mean the status quo.  So which version of Devo did they vote for?

It is quite ludicrous.  There were probably many people who voted No but certainly don’t want Devo anything.  As I head one person say, I just want things to be the same.  Where is their voice in all this?  

I think we can safely say, since the intervention of the three leaders, not only will it never be the same in Scotland, they have dragged the whole UK into this and now it will never be the same for them either.

And a closing thought for those of you who think any of the Devo proposals will sail through Westminster without he Barnett formula ending in tatters, think again. 

11 hours to go

Well, the days have turned to hours.  At 7am the voting starts.  And I gather the polling stations will accept people in the doors up till 10pm and allow them to vote even if it's past the hour when they actually cast their vote.  Just don't risk it though!  With over 4,285,323 people - 97% of the electorate of the nation registered to vote, it is going to be some turn out.  

So time for a few last minute thoughts.  

Health.  UK faces increasing NHS privatisation and there is little Scotland can do if we remain in union.  So said Harry Burns in the Sunday Herald.  Harry of course isn’t an ordinary person like you and I.  Professor of global public health at University of Strathclyde, and the Chief Medical Officer for Scotland from September 2005 to April 2014, I would think he knows what he is taking about.  Indeed, I think he is one of the most trusted people to have contributed to this debate.   If what he says is true, surely there can be only one way to vote.  

Economy.  And what of the economy?  Well, I always tend to put a bit more credence on the views of people who have put their money where their mouth is.  Unlike political parties who put our money where their mouth is.  So when Martin Gilbert, Chief Executive of Aberdeen Asset Management (including Scottish Widows Investment Partnership), backs the economy of an independent Scotland to be a success, I know the economy of an independent Scotland will not be at risk.  The entrepreneur, who co-founded the company in 1983 company which is one of the largest business organisations in Scotland with substantial holdings of over £350 billion, said to the BBC that “An independent Scotland would be a great success.”  Add Sir Brian Souter, Chairman of Stagecoach plc; Ralph Topping who retired last month as CEO of William Hill plc; Sandy Orr OBE, Founder of Mint Hotels; Jim McColl OBE, Chairman and CEO of Clyde Blowers plc; Mohammed Ramzan, Chairman, United Wholesale Grocers, alongside leading finance sector figures like Jim Spowart, Founder, Standard Life Bank and Intelligent Finance and Sir George Mathewson, Chairman, Toscafund.   I’m happy with them to know what’s best for our economy.

Shipbuilding.  Apparently  rUK won’t buy ships in a “foreign” country.  Well, perhaps someone better tell the USA that.  The UK buys US-built  Trident missile system and other assorted weaponry, vehicles and aircraft stateside. They will be disappointed to know the rUK orders are being cancelled.

Borders.  Well, there won’t really be any.  Look at the UK Ireland border.  A change in tarmac colour suffices.  The only way it could be an issue is if it’s made an issue by rUK.  

We could go on.  But afford me one more observation.

The Campaign.  Bad behaviour on both sides, of that there is no doubt.  The mindless vandalism of the people who painted out the No posters.  And the arm up the back tactics from Downing street to business leaders.  Let’s condemn them all.   But as Dr Tim Stanley said in today’s Telegraph, it was the No campaign’s grinding negativity and inability to look anything other than establishment orientated that was its failure.  "The message coming out of the No campaign has been far too focused on what Scotland is incapable of doing by itself (an insult to regional sic pride) and far too obsessed with wheeling out big international names to make its cause (Bill Clinton? Seriously?!)". The No campaign just never came out with a  positive vision, a point echoed by Andy Murray.  Better together is not exactly inspiring.  It just says, lets change nothing.

So will I vote with my head or my heart?  Well, put it this way, I wouldn’t want to wake up on Friday morning and find the Nation had voted Yes and then discover we couldn’t do it.  So hopefully this blog has shown some of the home work I’ve done.  It's been fun.  So now, draw your own conclusions.  

But for me, the Ayes have it, the Ayes have it.

What a mess they've got us into

A good friend of mine last night concluded he was going to vote No.  I was sad as I have failed to help him catch the vision of what could be.  At times it felt like I was listening to an old scratched gramophone record, the same old excuses and scare stories were trotted out for a No.  Almost like a Lamont Davidson duet.  

The refrain, of "too many unanswered questions" became somewhat tiring.  It became a bit like Nick Robinson who gets an answer from the First Minster but decided it doesn't work as an answer for him so says big Ek never answered him. Ludicrous, but there you go.

What my good friend doesn’t seem to appreciate is if we vote Yes we will have some sort of certainty.  If we vote No, the gloves are off.  All this stuff about the Vow is utterly meaningless.   Plaid Cymru, Labour and Conservative MPs are now queuing up to express a view that there is a good chance they won’t be supporting the Vow.  And you can understand their position, not least in Wales, if they want to get re-elected by constituents who must think the three party leaders are off their heads. 

Just picture it.  A constituent asks, “so you are giving the Scots more power?”.  Yes.  “And allow them to keep an enhanced Barnett formula?”  Yes.  “So what you doing for me?”  Now I may be wrong but I really don’t think English and Welsh MPs are going to run with this Vow without pretty massive concessions.

You know, until the three leaders and the shadow of Brown turned up, the vote was very simple.  I actually think it may well have been No.  But they turned up and broke the Edinburgh Agreement.  They introduced things that were specifically agreed would not be on the table.  They have created this new mess that will unfold if it’s a No vote.

The polls opening 22 hours from now.  And with all this spin, gloom and undeliverable promises from the Westminster leaders I’m not so sure the Scottish people will be taken in.  All the intervention of the Westminster four has done is make it worse for Scotland in the longer term.  England will make sure it gets at least its fair share of the cake, if not more. And you can understand why.  Our meagre 59 MPs will be out voted at every turn at Westminster from here on in by MPs more interested in their own survival than the interests of Scotland.

So, tomorrow, as my friend goes to the ballot box, he will have to think of two futures.  Will he chose the one that will be good for him and the generations to come, both here and across the border? Will the tide have turned for him?  I hope so.

The No campaign slogan is Better Together.  Really?  Better together is what we have now.  Is that really the best aspiration the people of Scotland have today?  I hope not.

Along comes another bus

You wait for half an hour.  Then five buses come at once.  Ever been there?

A few days ago my post "The World's about to end", we looked at the credibility of Deutsche Bank and their projections.  And what do you know, along comes another German bank.  Except this time they take a bit of a different slant on things.  Commerzbank reckons such speculation has been overdone.  Indeed, the bank’s economists declared today that “some of the worst case scenarios painted in recent days appear exaggerated”, and provided evidence that Scottish shares have actually outperformed those of the UK as a whole this year, rather than registered any major collapse.  Not sure I’ve really heard that reported in many London based news outlets.

I not sure what this proves except different people and different organisations can produce differing figures and analysis.  Which is good and healthy.

What isn't good and healthy is, rather than taking figures and presenting them to us and leaving it for us to decide, we have those who singularly churn out doom and gloom irrespective of the differing reams of information.

This strategy of gloom and doom has somewhat backfired.  Why? Because, according Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, Chief Executive of Business for Scotland, “it invites a clear comparison between the London based Westminster-connected business people who fear positive change for Scotland and those major business people who have come out for YES who are Scottish based and care most for Scotland”.  He then lists Sir Brian Souter, Chairman of Stagecoach plc, Jim McColl OBE, Chairman and CEO of Clyde Blowers plc, Mohammed Ramzan, Chairman of United Wholesale Grocers, Marie Macklin, Chief Executive of Klin Group, Doug Duguid, CEO of EnerMech and most recently former Tory donor John McGlynn, Founder and Chairman of Airlink Group.  All Scottish wealth and job creators, some on a grand international scale.  

So, in whom will you place your trust on Thursday?  Those who are happy to spend our wealth?  Or those who create the wealth?   Bit of a no brainer really.

What's a bit of paper?

Gordon Brown took to the airwaves this morning in sunny Clydebank.  After invoking the spirit of the Blitz, the references to battles and how people from the four Nations had fought and died together, he waved in the air the Act of Parliament that endowed the Scottish Parliament with the powers to raises taxes.  It was the same sort of flourishing of a piece of paper the UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain displayed on that fateful September day in 1938 at Heston Aerodrome.

Of course there is no comparison of the words on these two different bits of paper.  The one waved at the foot of the steps of the Lockheed Model 14 Super Electra were somewhat different than the Act Brown was theatrically flourishing. The Act, Brown claimed, says the Scottish Government can already raise taxes to fund NHS Scotland.

And there’s the rub.  Once again Brown thinks that it’s all about raising taxes out of your pocket and mine.  Using this logic it would mean the Scottish people would end up paying more taxes than people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.  So unless I’m mistaken, a No vote will mean even higher taxation for Scottish people.   You and I will have less money to spend on our mortgages, our weekly shopping, to give away to charities of our choice, our holidays, our, well, you get the drift.  Gordon Brown does have form here.  Lest anyone forget, he took our pensions to the cleaners.  He also wasn’t that good at holding on to our gold reserves selling them after telling the market he was about to do so.  So taking his promises with a pinch of salt is perhaps prudent. 

So to hear his lecture in Clydebank today was rather bizarre.  I was just hoping against hope that one of the audience would have a moment of bravery and ask why, while in power for 12 years, he never pushed the devolution button.

All this of course supposes the MPs in the UK parliament would allow more devolution to pass the floor of the House of Commons.  That is looking like being a challenge in itself.  The Vow may be simply another useless bit of paper waved in the wind.

Anything is possible with goodwill

We have had all sorts of hysteria around borders.  We've even had Ed Miliband joining in with his take on it all.  Passports, guards.  Even soldiers all coming it to the conversation at some point. I don't want to appear cynical, but when Mr Miliband also mentioned his 'personal connection' with Scotland, his father Ralph was stationed at Inverkeithing 70 years ago during the Second World War, for how long we are not sure, I think we know there is a little desperation creeping in to the No campaign.

But what would it really be like?  Well the BBC bravely did a story on borders on the news last night.  And it was quite an eye opener.  The border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland is marked by a change in the tarmac on the road.  No fences.  No barriers. No lines. No guards.  And no one waving a passport at anyone.  

It seems that when goodwill is applied, even in the divided island of Ireland, anything is possible.

The world's about to end

Independence would threaten a major economic crisis for Scotland and be regarded in history as being as great a mistake as the decisions that led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, according to banking giant Deutsche Bank.  On the face of it that’s a pretty troubling headline in today’s Herald.
 

And we would have “economic catastrophe” being visited upon Britain within days of a vote for Independence according to some MPs.

Lets stick with Deutsche Bank at the moment and dig a little deeper and you may find it a little difficult  to take such words seriously. It knows all about how to create a crisis.

In January 2014 it was reported that Deutsche Bank reported a €1.2 billion ($1.6 billion) pre-tax loss for the fourth quarter of 2013.  Hardly the most auspicious of performances.   

And if we go back a little further in history Deutsche Bank was one of the major drivers of the collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market during the housing credit bubble from 2004–2008, creating ~$32,000,000,000 worth.  The 2011 US Senate Permanent Select Committee on Investigations report on Wall Street and the Financial Crisis analysed Deutsche Bank as a 'case study' of investment banking involvement in the mortgage bubble, CDO market, credit crunch, and recession. It concluded that even as the market was collapsing in 2007, and its top global CDO trader was deriding the CDO market and betting against some of the mortgage bonds in its CDOs, Deutsche bank continued to churn out bad CDO products to investors.  That doesn’t sound so good. 

Add to that the little probe by Germanys financial regulator into allegations that senior Deutsch Bank AG executives initiated spying operations against unruly shareholders and other targets. The regulator talked of “misconduct” by officials in the banks security department and we perhaps begin to see a rather different Deutsch Bank.

So there you have it.  George Robertson’s words on the cataclysmic implications for global security. And now we have a similar warning for the financial markets.  It may come as a big surprise to you too, but I never in my wildest dreams realised that Scotland really was at the centre of both military and economic policy for the whole world and what happened here the future of world depended on.

A story of rivalry

"Next year, as is a long held tradition, many will return to Scotland to join you for your annual Battle of the Boyne commemorations and we very much hope that we will not require our passports".  So said Orange Order of Ireland Grand Master Edward Stevenson at an event in Edinburgh today.

I found this interesting.  And rather sad.  To refresh your memories the Battle of the Boyne he was invoking was fought in 1690 between two rival claimants of the English, Scottish, and Irish thrones.  Put simply, Catholic vs a Protestant.  William, the Protestant, won. 

So here we have a march today in Scotland’s capital city by people still celebrating an event in 1690. In a different part of these Isles.

What kind of mind-set does that require?  I’m not sure it’s a healthy one in 2014 where we are trying to rid our nation from sectarianism.  And we certainly don’t want it in the debate about our future as a nation.

Two words to scare Asda

I have just been reminded of two words. Aldi.  Headquaters:  Essen, North Rhine - Westphalia, Germany.

And Lidl . Headquarters:  Neckarsulm, Baden-Württemberg, Germany.

Isn’t it amazing that German based discounters can do things even cheaper in Scotland than UK based Asda.

  

Perhaps they don't look for problems but opportunities.

Who would you choose to follow?

A couple of days ago we were treated to the sight of the leaders of the three main parties in the UK, with the shadow of Gordon Brown behind them, all coming on a day trip to Scotland, a bit like American tourists do.  They proclaimed a new way ahead.   Which is ever so slightly awkward when the Leader of the House, William Hague, was generously reminding  the House of Commons that the words they were using in Edinburgh were not, and never has been, Government policy.

Here’s a question for you.   Can someone tell me how many jobs in the real productive world the three leaders and the shadow of Gordon Brown have actually had?   Or how much of their own personal money have they had to risk to invest in their own private business? Or how many real jobs have they created and sustained in a private business?  I fear you will have come to the same conclusion as me.

So who would you rather follow? These four.  Or Martin Gilbert, Chief Executive of Aberdeen Asset Management.  He has backed the economy of an independent Scotland to be a success.  The entrepreneur, who co-founded the company in 1983, said last night to the BBC that “An independent Scotland would be a great success.”  Gilbert’s company is one of the largest business organisations in Scotland with substantial holdings of over £350 billion. It’s success is built on both its intellectual capital and Scotland’s advantages in the financial services sector.

Gilbert’s vote of confidence in Scotland’s strengths was matched by Sir Angus Grossart, Chair of Edinburgh bank Nobel Grossart, who said that the referendum’s impact on market instability has been “severely overstated”. He continued “To hear some of the comments you almost expect people to be predicting a plague of locusts or mice next.”

So, on our march to the polls on the 18th, whose ideas and thinking would you rather trust? Those who create wealth and jobs and provide the money that actually pays for running our public services.  Or those who have never run a business in their life.  It's your choice.

It's a good news day. Cheers!

It’s not all bad news. While some retailers are gloom merchants, others are not.   Tim Martin, chief executive of JD Wetherspoon said this morning on Radio 5 Live that there is "no sensible reason" why the cost of a pint would go up in an independent Scotland he said . He also says there is no reason why an independent Scotland "could not thrive”.  
Which is a good point  to suggest you go look at emerging Scottish businesses like Jaw Brew and  West Beer.
So, cheers to a good day!

What was the deal?

I’m not sure if you found it strange.  I did.  Serious businesses telling the world what their pricing strategy would be in 18 months’ time.  The John Lewis Group and Asda have said their prices may change.   
 

Interestingly, as far as I can see, TESCO have not joined this particular bandwagon.  Could it be that they very successfully operate in Ireland, India Czech Republic, Malaysia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, China, Turkey and Thailand?  They must be rubbing their hands in glee this morning, their major competitors have given away their pricing plans 18 months in advance.  TESCO have one of the most sophisticated and successful logistics operation on the planet and will no doubt now be planning how to become the major player in Scotland.  I’m sure there are other businesses too like ScotMid who will relish the opportunity of trading against companies who have higher prices as their strategy.

But underling all this supermarket talk, there is a serious question.  What did the Prime Minster say to the leaders of these organisations that made them declare their hand 18 month before Scotland will actually be independent should it vote yes?  What other things did they talk about?  We should be told.  Sadly, I think we are all too weary and cynical now to expect that there was not some sort of trade off. 

What is news?

There were two major events that the BBC covered this morning.  One was the trial in a foreign country of a citizen of that country, all be it a very high profile one.  The second was a media conference for the worlds media by the First Minster of Scotland.  Appearing alongside Mr Salmond was Canon Kenyon Wright, who with considerable wisdom and grace chaired the Scottish Constitutional Convention that paved the way for the creation of the devolved parliament, and who now backs independence.

Now, George Robertson the former secretary general of NATO, claims that "The loudest cheers for the break-up of Britain would be from our adversaries and from our enemies.  For the second military power in the west to shatter this year would be cataclysmic in geo-political terms."  Strong words.

You and I both know I’m no SNP stooge.  But you I’m sure you remember that George is the man that predicted that devolution would kill the SNP stone dead, so his predictions perhaps don't hold too much water you may think. You may also prefer the views of another former NATO person, except of more recent years.  Dame Mariot Leslie, the recently retired UK ambassador to NATO has revealed she is voting Yes to Scottish independence and said the international alliance would welcome the new Scottish state.

But here is the strange thing. In spite of the devastating consequences that apparently a new independent government would bring to world order, the BBC focused on Oscar Pistorious in its rolling 24 hour news channel. 

Bit odd that don't you think?

It's scare time again

When it comes to economics in the debate, you can glean all sorts of views.  This morning we wake up to RBS saying they will move their brass name place to London if there is a Yes vote.  All very odd because all that will have happened on the 18^th of September is that the people of Scotland will have voted.  No negotiations will have happened.  So who knows what the negotiations after a Yes vote would throw up. 

Are serious business people saying they will jump in the dark directly after a Yes vote given the negotiations could actually mean that Scotland was, in the case of the financial sector, actually the better place to do business?  I’m not at all sure I would want to be investing in such a company that takes knee jerk reactions.  

Martin Gilbert the chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management is no shrinking violet when it comes to having to make big decisions.  Though in the print and news media this morning you might just have struggled to hear his voice.  Basically he says Scottish independence would be a great success  reports Kamal Ahmed on Today.  Mr Gilbert argues that using sterling could work, if the Scottish economy is in a strong position, according to Kamal.   Calm, rational and thoughtful.  We need more people like Martin Gilbert and less shrill doom mongers in the debate.