The world's about to end

Independence would threaten a major economic crisis for Scotland and be regarded in history as being as great a mistake as the decisions that led to the Great Depression of the 1930s, according to banking giant Deutsche Bank.  On the face of it that’s a pretty troubling headline in today’s Herald.
 

And we would have “economic catastrophe” being visited upon Britain within days of a vote for Independence according to some MPs.

Lets stick with Deutsche Bank at the moment and dig a little deeper and you may find it a little difficult  to take such words seriously. It knows all about how to create a crisis.

In January 2014 it was reported that Deutsche Bank reported a €1.2 billion ($1.6 billion) pre-tax loss for the fourth quarter of 2013.  Hardly the most auspicious of performances.   

And if we go back a little further in history Deutsche Bank was one of the major drivers of the collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market during the housing credit bubble from 2004–2008, creating ~$32,000,000,000 worth.  The 2011 US Senate Permanent Select Committee on Investigations report on Wall Street and the Financial Crisis analysed Deutsche Bank as a 'case study' of investment banking involvement in the mortgage bubble, CDO market, credit crunch, and recession. It concluded that even as the market was collapsing in 2007, and its top global CDO trader was deriding the CDO market and betting against some of the mortgage bonds in its CDOs, Deutsche bank continued to churn out bad CDO products to investors.  That doesn’t sound so good. 

Add to that the little probe by Germanys financial regulator into allegations that senior Deutsch Bank AG executives initiated spying operations against unruly shareholders and other targets. The regulator talked of “misconduct” by officials in the banks security department and we perhaps begin to see a rather different Deutsch Bank.

So there you have it.  George Robertson’s words on the cataclysmic implications for global security. And now we have a similar warning for the financial markets.  It may come as a big surprise to you too, but I never in my wildest dreams realised that Scotland really was at the centre of both military and economic policy for the whole world and what happened here the future of world depended on.

A story of rivalry

"Next year, as is a long held tradition, many will return to Scotland to join you for your annual Battle of the Boyne commemorations and we very much hope that we will not require our passports".  So said Orange Order of Ireland Grand Master Edward Stevenson at an event in Edinburgh today.

I found this interesting.  And rather sad.  To refresh your memories the Battle of the Boyne he was invoking was fought in 1690 between two rival claimants of the English, Scottish, and Irish thrones.  Put simply, Catholic vs a Protestant.  William, the Protestant, won. 

So here we have a march today in Scotland’s capital city by people still celebrating an event in 1690. In a different part of these Isles.

What kind of mind-set does that require?  I’m not sure it’s a healthy one in 2014 where we are trying to rid our nation from sectarianism.  And we certainly don’t want it in the debate about our future as a nation.

Two words to scare Asda

I have just been reminded of two words. Aldi.  Headquaters:  Essen, North Rhine - Westphalia, Germany.

And Lidl . Headquarters:  Neckarsulm, Baden-Württemberg, Germany.

Isn’t it amazing that German based discounters can do things even cheaper in Scotland than UK based Asda.

  

Perhaps they don't look for problems but opportunities.

Who would you choose to follow?

A couple of days ago we were treated to the sight of the leaders of the three main parties in the UK, with the shadow of Gordon Brown behind them, all coming on a day trip to Scotland, a bit like American tourists do.  They proclaimed a new way ahead.   Which is ever so slightly awkward when the Leader of the House, William Hague, was generously reminding  the House of Commons that the words they were using in Edinburgh were not, and never has been, Government policy.

Here’s a question for you.   Can someone tell me how many jobs in the real productive world the three leaders and the shadow of Gordon Brown have actually had?   Or how much of their own personal money have they had to risk to invest in their own private business? Or how many real jobs have they created and sustained in a private business?  I fear you will have come to the same conclusion as me.

So who would you rather follow? These four.  Or Martin Gilbert, Chief Executive of Aberdeen Asset Management.  He has backed the economy of an independent Scotland to be a success.  The entrepreneur, who co-founded the company in 1983, said last night to the BBC that “An independent Scotland would be a great success.”  Gilbert’s company is one of the largest business organisations in Scotland with substantial holdings of over £350 billion. It’s success is built on both its intellectual capital and Scotland’s advantages in the financial services sector.

Gilbert’s vote of confidence in Scotland’s strengths was matched by Sir Angus Grossart, Chair of Edinburgh bank Nobel Grossart, who said that the referendum’s impact on market instability has been “severely overstated”. He continued “To hear some of the comments you almost expect people to be predicting a plague of locusts or mice next.”

So, on our march to the polls on the 18th, whose ideas and thinking would you rather trust? Those who create wealth and jobs and provide the money that actually pays for running our public services.  Or those who have never run a business in their life.  It's your choice.

It's a good news day. Cheers!

It’s not all bad news. While some retailers are gloom merchants, others are not.   Tim Martin, chief executive of JD Wetherspoon said this morning on Radio 5 Live that there is "no sensible reason" why the cost of a pint would go up in an independent Scotland he said . He also says there is no reason why an independent Scotland "could not thrive”.  
Which is a good point  to suggest you go look at emerging Scottish businesses like Jaw Brew and  West Beer.
So, cheers to a good day!

What was the deal?

I’m not sure if you found it strange.  I did.  Serious businesses telling the world what their pricing strategy would be in 18 months’ time.  The John Lewis Group and Asda have said their prices may change.   
 

Interestingly, as far as I can see, TESCO have not joined this particular bandwagon.  Could it be that they very successfully operate in Ireland, India Czech Republic, Malaysia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, China, Turkey and Thailand?  They must be rubbing their hands in glee this morning, their major competitors have given away their pricing plans 18 months in advance.  TESCO have one of the most sophisticated and successful logistics operation on the planet and will no doubt now be planning how to become the major player in Scotland.  I’m sure there are other businesses too like ScotMid who will relish the opportunity of trading against companies who have higher prices as their strategy.

But underling all this supermarket talk, there is a serious question.  What did the Prime Minster say to the leaders of these organisations that made them declare their hand 18 month before Scotland will actually be independent should it vote yes?  What other things did they talk about?  We should be told.  Sadly, I think we are all too weary and cynical now to expect that there was not some sort of trade off. 

What is news?

There were two major events that the BBC covered this morning.  One was the trial in a foreign country of a citizen of that country, all be it a very high profile one.  The second was a media conference for the worlds media by the First Minster of Scotland.  Appearing alongside Mr Salmond was Canon Kenyon Wright, who with considerable wisdom and grace chaired the Scottish Constitutional Convention that paved the way for the creation of the devolved parliament, and who now backs independence.

Now, George Robertson the former secretary general of NATO, claims that "The loudest cheers for the break-up of Britain would be from our adversaries and from our enemies.  For the second military power in the west to shatter this year would be cataclysmic in geo-political terms."  Strong words.

You and I both know I’m no SNP stooge.  But you I’m sure you remember that George is the man that predicted that devolution would kill the SNP stone dead, so his predictions perhaps don't hold too much water you may think. You may also prefer the views of another former NATO person, except of more recent years.  Dame Mariot Leslie, the recently retired UK ambassador to NATO has revealed she is voting Yes to Scottish independence and said the international alliance would welcome the new Scottish state.

But here is the strange thing. In spite of the devastating consequences that apparently a new independent government would bring to world order, the BBC focused on Oscar Pistorious in its rolling 24 hour news channel. 

Bit odd that don't you think?

It's scare time again

When it comes to economics in the debate, you can glean all sorts of views.  This morning we wake up to RBS saying they will move their brass name place to London if there is a Yes vote.  All very odd because all that will have happened on the 18^th of September is that the people of Scotland will have voted.  No negotiations will have happened.  So who knows what the negotiations after a Yes vote would throw up. 

Are serious business people saying they will jump in the dark directly after a Yes vote given the negotiations could actually mean that Scotland was, in the case of the financial sector, actually the better place to do business?  I’m not at all sure I would want to be investing in such a company that takes knee jerk reactions.  

Martin Gilbert the chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management is no shrinking violet when it comes to having to make big decisions.  Though in the print and news media this morning you might just have struggled to hear his voice.  Basically he says Scottish independence would be a great success  reports Kamal Ahmed on Today.  Mr Gilbert argues that using sterling could work, if the Scottish economy is in a strong position, according to Kamal.   Calm, rational and thoughtful.  We need more people like Martin Gilbert and less shrill doom mongers in the debate.

I've been reminded

Silly me, I totally forgot to mention the man who saved the world. Gordon Brown. He is the architect of the timetable for Devo Max.  And what a man!  In power as Chancellor and Prime Minister.  But apparently he forgot to push the button on devolving more power.  For 12 years.

And now he and his new BFs wing their way to Scotland with 7 days to go.  And they tell us they will now, (now the polls have gone to YES) ever so generously “give” us these powers.  And they have been planning these new powers all along. Aye, right!!!! And that is the crux of it.  Westminster trio  believe all power is theirs, not the peoples.

And Gordon Brown, who does he think he is? I was reminded of this great clip.

The tide has turned

Well, its been a while since I last blogged. But the next week will see some contributions to the debate on the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

Let's start with today. We have three day trippers north of the border. Team Clegg Cameron and Miliband. Their aim, persuade people in Scotland that we are "better together". But it is not the most auspicious of starts. They want to re-write the question. No more will we be voting on the question, “Should Scotland be an independent country?: YES or NO”.

Instead, on the basis of the intervention by team Clegg Cameron Miliband, the question now is in effect: “Should Scotland be an independent country or do you want Devo Max”. So no longer can we vote for the status quo as previously agreed by all parties.

They have told us change will come. Though interestingly, apparently not till after the next UK General Election. Funny that.

But let's look back in time. The Scottish Government consistently made it clear that it was willing to include a question on further substantial devolution in the referendum if there was sufficient support for such a move. That move was opposed by the very people who now, 7 days before the referendum, want that as the only alternative to a YES vote.

So perhaps you can help me. Can someone please enlighten me what parliament gave permission to change the question in the forthcoming referendum?

Smokescreen to hide a new work of fiction

Wednesday was Budget Day. The borrowing figures got the headlines - and rightly so. We're in a new age of austerity yet this Labour Government is trapped in the old age of irresponsibility. Anyone watching or listening to what was happening in the House of Commons as the Chancellor told us he was planning to borrow more in the next two years than all previous governments combined left me open-mouthed. I used to say this Government seems intent on saddling future generations with debt. I was wrong. After this week, they're going to crush them.

But, as ever, the real story of Labour's Budgets comes after the Chancellor sits down and you get to unpack truth from fiction. And this year, there was more fiction than normal. Within an hour the IMF had rubbished his growth forecasts, suggesting Labour's Debt Crisis will be even worse. Then their claim that only the rich would carry the burden of their mistakes was dismissed - their tax rises will hit the many, not the few, with everyone earning over £20,000 worse off. And by Thursday it became clear that there's an even bigger black hole in their figures - which will be plugged by guess who? Yes, all of us - in even higher taxes. This Budget can be summed up in one word: dishonest.

So I shouldn't have been surprised at the con trick they're trying to pull on expenses. Labour's idea of a clean-up operation is to pay MPs just for turning up to work, giving them the same amount of money but for less accountability - in fact, no accountability, no receipts. This is just not good enough and the country won't buy it. We need a system that is more transparent and more trustworthy. No more claiming for stamp duty or furniture or flat screen televisions or patio heaters. Let's deal with the lack of public confidence that way. And let's have a clear declaration from all MPs: this is where I live and this is why I require expenses to allow me to do my job. In fact, why does not Mr Brown just advocate what already happens in his home country in relation to expenses.

An unworkable solution

Well, now it is out. A most confusing and complicated solution to the so called West Lothian Question. Apart from the fact that London MP's will be unable to vote on some legislation given there is devolution of some things relevant to London, it’s a real mixed up basket of thinking. Which from Ken Clarke, I find a bit of a surprise.
There is however one serious flaw in Clarke's proposals and that is he only tackles half the problem. For example, in the UK Cabinet, we have around the table all the Great Offices of state which are UK wide. And that is entirely correct. But we also have England only offices such as Health and Education to name but two who sit at the UK table.
So as well as banning Scots voting on English issues, what we should do is not have these England only offices at the UK Cabinet table otherwise, quite rightly, Scots will ask why they are at UK cabinet given they do not represent the UK. Instead, bring in an English Secretary of State to whom all these offices would report. We had it that way in Scotland until Devolution. The whole of Scotland's interests were represented at Cabinet level by one person. And it worked. It was truly joined up government. And it saved a fortune in costs. If it was good enough for us Scots for 100s of years, then it’s good enough for England now. That would bring a really fair settlement.
So a fair settlement with English MPs only on English issues and a Secretary of State for England who can sit along side other Secretaries of State for Scotland NI and Wales would be the perfect solution to the West Lothian Question.
But the real answer is give England its own parliament to deal with England only issues and let the UK parliament take care of UK wide issues.
I think the English Parliament would look good in York!
Interestingly, it was not Tam Dayell who coined the phrase "West Lothian Question". That was none other than Enoch Powell who, in response to Tam Dalyell's speech on the subject said: "We have finally grasped what the Honourable Member for West Lothian is getting at, let us call it the West Lothian Question."

Darlings tax dodge

This is the economics of the mad house.

First the Chancellor says that under, what effectively is a mini budget, the people will now receive benefit to make up for the tax loss. No one has said yet what the administrative cost to the country of taking the money and giving it back to people is. Does strike me as rather ludicrous.

But to compound it, the Chancellor says he will borrow money to pay for what is in effect the weekly shopping bill. Given he is committing to do this year on year, that is a lot of borrowing to pay for the weekly bills. I always though you only borrowed when you were investing in something tangible.

Clearly under Labours new economics, not so.

Sleepwalking into the European Nightmare

The EU treaty is "substantially equivalent" to the EU Constitution thrown out by Dutch and French voters in 2005, UK MPs have said.

The committee criticised the "essentially secret" drafting of the document, which is due to be signed by EU heads of government in Portugal after an Intergovernmental Committee (IGC) later this month (October 07). Indeed, their report on the European Reform Treaty questions, perhaps even undermines, just about all the government’s main claims for that controversial text.

At any rate, it’s rare for a Labour-dominated committee (nine out of 16 members) to produce a report quite so unhelpful to the government.

The headline is that the MPs of the European Scrutiny Committee find that the European Treaty is "substantially equivalent" to the constitution.

They say they understand why the government wants to distance itself from the old constitution but add, "We would wish to explore the reality and significance," of this approach, adding that it could be "misleading". They say it is up to the government to prove that the new treaty is "significantly different" from the old constitution, adding that despite the British opt-outs "we are not convinced". They demand that the government spells out what battles it has won to make the treaty so different for the UK.

It doesn’t stop there. They question the worth of Britain’s opt-outs and clarifications. They say they are “concerned” that the treaty will mean changes that will increase the EU’s powers over national law and so national governments. They want our government to state what safeguards it has against this.

They then go on to be "concerned" that European courts will gain greater rights over UK law. They pick two examples and suggest that Britain might face tougher laws on the length of the working week and on discrimination (they seem to assume that this would be a bad thing) and want “concrete evidence” that this won’t happen

All this is quite remarkable in a week when the Prime Minister is trying to regain some sort of credibility. It seems that New Labour will happily spin an election promise when it suits them; they break it when it suits them.

If a cross party parliamentary committee says it’s the same, does this mean Brown can’t see the truth? Quite possibly.

In his Statement on Iraq in the Commons earlier this week Brown seemed to be assuming the mantle of Gladstone. An amazing thought. But is the Prime Minister aware that it was said of Mr. Gladstone that he could convince most people of most things and himself of almost anything? It seems Brown can convince himself that the EU constitution is not a Constitution when any sane person says it is virtually the same document. Don’t believe me?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6914468.stm It’s interesting to note both the people in this link are in virtual agreement as to what will happen if the treaty is signed. They just take different stances as to whether it’s good for the UK. Me? Sorry, the Constitution is not for me.

When the people of Europe realise what their leaders have done it will all end in tears. Or war.

One rule for you, one rule for me

It seems that you can accuse others of hate crimes these days but happily go about them yourself. You may not speak ill of anyone who may be of a different religious, sexual, political or any other persuasion. But when it comes to race, well, the USA administration clearly puts that in another category all together.

So it was perhaps no surprise what some British MPs visiting the Pentagon to discuss America's stance on Iran and Iraq told they heard one of the USA’s most powerful women say. Debra Cagan, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Coalition Affairs to Defence Secretary Robert Gates told the group: "I hate all Iranians."

The six MPs were taken aback by the hard-line approach of the Pentagon and in particular Ms Cagan, one of Mr Bush's foreign policy advisers.

Tory Stuart Graham, who was on the ten-day trip, would not discuss Ms Cagan but said: "It was very sobering to hear from the horse's mouth how the US sees the situation."

Of course the Pentagon subsequently denied Ms Cagan said she "hated" Iranians.

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=554201962695917482&q=rageh+in+iran gives a balanced view Ms Cagan should have a look at.

So, again its one rule for you, one rule for me.

Who unlocks the doors

I was sitting there packing up my papers after a school board meeting. Head teacher, parents, representatives of the local community like me, we all had enjoyed an evening learning of the successes of the school.

As we discussed the date of our next meeting it became clear that the Head teacher was trying to fit us around a date when others were also going to be in the school building. It didn’t really suit many of our diaries but we acquiesced.

But on enquiring more why such was a preferred date our Head told us that it would save over-time costs for the Janitor. Why, I enquired, did the Janitor have to be there, at taxpayer’s expense, to unlock one school door and then wait for two hours to lock it again when the Head and six parents would be the only ones in the school? Could the Head teacher not open and close the school for us? Apparently not. Her years of training clearly have not trained her for such a task.

I multiply that by the factor 12 for a meeting a month of our Board. And multiply that by the number of schools in Scotland. You come up with a figure that, while not enormous, is certainly enough to employ a lot more teachers. I reckon at least 3 more in my own local authority area.
Just another area of inefficient waste that Labour is unwilling or unable to tackle. So why are we allowing it to happen?

Answers and angry comments on a post card to your local Councillor.

A world away

Malta is a lovely country. Or State as we now have to call it now it’s joined the EU. Funny how names change without you really noticing. I think we all know what a State is. The USA has 50 of them I believe. We all know what a State is not. A country. So its goodbye Malta, the independent country that fought so valiantly in the 2nd World War.

I’ve just been there. One of the most amazing things is the low level of crime and disorder. Apart from the areas they have specially set aside for people from the UK where they go and do all the things they think will amuse the local population. Not realising they are being looked at with scorn and pity. For the islands that make up Malta don’t know crime the way we do. A car break in was reported in banner headlines in the Malta Times.

So why are they so crime free? A few observations. Families eat together. On the balcony, the street. Even the beach is covered in the dusk with extended families all enjoying time together. Almost every night. Now, I know local climatic conditions make that possible. Their TV out-put doesn’t inspire staying to watch it either. But is there some secret there. Here, in the UK, it’s all TV dinners in front of mega plasma screens with food bought out the supermarket, probably processed.

One of the fears of the Maltese I talked to is that many of the bad traits that exist in Europe will steadily creep into Malta. Open borders and single currency may have their benefits. But they bring a whole new set of problems. They think they are seeing the first signs of it already. Hopefully joining the EC will not be the beginning of the end for a little bit of this world that lives on common sense, a strong sense of family ties and values and has little crime to write home about.

Red phone box

Earlier this year while on holiday in Cornwall I took a trip to Boscastle. Which brings me to question one. Name Boscastle ring any bells? Ah yes the place that was nearly washed away in floods a few years back. I remember the coverage. Wall to wall. Screen to screen. Paper to paper.

Now, question two. What famous telephone box nearly got washed away in a mud slide caused by torrential rain? If you were listening to the news on BBC Radio Four or indeed viewing it on any of the news outlets south of the border you probably haven’t a clue what I’m on about. Pennan is a beautiful little village up on the north east coast of Scotland. The telephone box was the one in the wonderful film “Local Hero”. Both nearly ended up in the sea after the afore mentioned mud slide.

It also happens to be 600 miles from London. Which is probably why no one south of the border knows about it. Which is a shame. Because if they are operating in the spirit of impartiality, we won’t be getting the wall to wall coverage we recently had again of flooding in parts of England next time they happen. Sad that.

Give us this day our daily bread

I’m not sure if it is one of these great urban myths or not, but the story of the school child when asked where milk comes from answers with out hesitation, Tesco, is well known. Well, technically they were correct of course. Or you could have said Asda, Co-op, your local corner shop or where ever. But it does belie a certain lack of understanding as to where our food comes from.

This ignorance was highlighted during this weekend when the dreaded foot and mouth disease reared its ugly head again.

One person that was described as an economic expert noted that farming in the UK accounted for less than 5% of GDP and therefore as they were not a dominant player in the over all scheme of things, who cared if a bunch of them went out of business.

In a way, this expert was as devoid of intellectual understanding as the child.

Sitting at breakfast, corn flakes with milk, toast, butter and jam. Then lunch, gammon steaks, potatoes, vegetables. Then supper. Light snack of cold cooked meats and cheese.

Clothes, wool jacket and trousers, leather shoes. And the list goes on. There are very few essentials in life that do not come from agriculture.

So I would like that expert to go away and do without any agricultural produce for just one day. I suspect even after 24 hours he would realise what 2/3 of the world already know. With out agriculture you starve. They may be only 5% of GDP. But they are 100% necessary for our survival.

Boris for Mayor. Or Ken. Who cares!!!

It looks like it may actually be an election that makes us laugh, smile, cry or cheer. The race for The Mayoral seat in London has begin, all be it as a trailer for the real thing. Opinion polls, these wonderfully reliable gauges of public opinion actually had Boris ahead in one. How exciting is that! A blip? A trend? Who knows. In a sense, who cares because ultimately only one vote will count. What we lovingly call democracy will have its way and one candidate will rise above the rest to be duly elected. Democracy, the suppressing of the minority by the majority. Oh how cynical of me.

But not half as cynical as Dawn Butler and Diane Abbott, Labour MPs for Brent South and Hackney North respectively. They already have played the “race” card. And all because Boris, in his inimitable fashion, used some rather quaint phrases. By no stretch of the imagination could they be called racist phrases. That is unless you see racism in every corner. (Just don’t ask for black tea!)

I recall not so long ago sitting on a Government committee on ethnic businesses and the need to integrate them into the “main stream”. On the evidence presented to us, one of the key issues for the particular community we were looking at was the lack of ability to speak English by a fair number of the business owners.

Now, if you are like me, you seek solutions to problems. The logical solution to me was to get the Home Office to fund a pilot programme to give intensive support to these businesses in the form of English language courses, all paid for by us the tax payer. It would at one stroke have given the poor English speakers an open door to the whole UK economy.

Sensible? Oh no it wasn’t! One chap nearly jumped over the table at me and shouted in my face that I was “a racist”! “They”, (he was referring to the largely European business community that existed in that particular part of town), “have to come to us and understand us”. Incidentally, it was at that series of meetings that I first realised the extent of the “race” industry. On many fronts, it wasn’t about getting equality. It was about getting separate development. Openly talked about were different accounting systems, different legal systems for businesses, different education systems for the children, different banking laws. I think in South Africa they called that apartheid. And there was me thinking that the UK was becoming a melting pot for all cultures and creeds. It was revealed to be far from it and getting further from it as the years go by. What different worlds we lived in.

So Butler and Abbot may, like my friend on the committee who introduced his own rather objectionable defination of what racisim is, be in danger of themselves introducing racism in to the debate by effectively saying that they are the judges of what language is racist and what is not.

Frankly, I think the people of London are too sensible to listen to such strident nonsense from these two.