Be careful what you wish for, President Macron.

I was chatting with one of my neighbours earlier today.  She is French.  She voted for Macron so was happy this morning.  

One of the many interesting observations she made was that she liked Macron because he was pro EU and the EU has kept the peace.  And she knows about what war does to a country and its people, her grandfather having been dismissed as Mayor in the French town where she grew up by the Nazis in the 2^nd World War.  So her family knows what suffering political tyranny can bring.   

And this is what I find a bit odd.  We know it was political tyranny that brought about WW2.  And just about any other war you can think of for that matter.  Politicians start wars.  Think Blair and Bush.

I disagree with the notion that the EU and its predecessors are the things that kept the peace over these past 70 years.  Trade has.  NATO too has a strong case for being part of the peace too, much stronger than the EUs case.   

But for me primarily it is trade.  Nations that let trade flourish between them are nations that have respect for each other.  They have a common goal of making things better.  Prosperity.  Freedom.   

You will see few nations who have gone to war that have had excellent trading relationships with those they are now fighting.  It just doesn’t happen.   

My fear with people like Macron is they are so wedded to the idea that the EU really is the great magician that will solve everything by political means that they really don’t see that harmonious trading relations trump everything else if you want peace.  History suggests that solving things by political means by elite rather than by trading brings conflict.  Not peace.     

If people like Macron are serious about making trading difficult between rEU and the UK, the consequences may be a lot worse than French car workers or wine producers losing business and jobs.  He should be very careful what he wishes for.  He and his ilk will be to blame for the consequences if trade is marginalised to the role of being nothing more than a diplomatic tool for politicians to wield.