Sunday, September 13, 2015

Flawed logic?

I am struggling a bit with the logic of what the First Minster of Scotland is saying these days.

Exactly 12 months ago we were told we had a once in a generation chance to vote YES.  By a significant number, close on 65%, the electorate did not back her views that Scotland should be an independent country.  And as a generation will be at least 16 years, assuming the age where people legally can contribute to a new generation, that’s a good few years away.  Like 2030.  But if you use official statistics the average age for people having their first baby in Scotland it is actually more like 30.  2014+30=2044.  The people knew that when they voted.  And the people decided.

So move on a year from the referendum.  We have Ms Sturgeon saying they will put into the manifesto for the elections to the Scottish Parliament in 2016 the timescale for a possible second referendum on independence.

She said: "Our manifesto will set out what we consider are the circumstances and the timescale on which a second referendum might be appropriate, but we can only propose.  It's then for people in Scotland, whether it is in this election or in future elections, to decide whether they want to vote for our manifesto and then if there is in the future another independence referendum, whether that's in five years or 10 years or whenever, it will be down to the people of Scotland to decide whether they want to vote for independence or not.  So at every single stage this is something that is driven by and decided by the people of Scotland, not by politicians."

This is strange logic indeed.  Just read what she said again.

The reality is that at every stage it will be driven by politicians.  Ms Sturgeon and her colleagues.  It clearly is not the Scottish people, they did not back her ideas 12 months ago, even though they will probably back her in to government again next year.  But that’s because there is nothing better to choose.

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