£85,173,454.91

Sometimes a story seems to bounce out of the ether.  Take today’s bold story about how, according to the OECD, the UK is going to be well and truly stuffed when we leave the EU.  Indeed, they rather interestingly claim that only having a second referendum and reversing Brexit will save the British economy from apocalypse. 

Actually leaving the EU is nothing to do with economics.  It’s about regaining the power for people to elect (or unelect) the people who make the laws they are governed by.  That is why we are leaving.  But let's leave that to one side for the moment.  

So, based on the word of the OECE, we should overturn a democratic vote.  They do have form.  Back in the olden days when the elite thought we should join the ERM, “great benefits” for the UK were forecast.  And look what happened.  Then there was the Euro.  Remember the elite telling us it would be disaster if we didn’t join?  Who’s laughing now?  Though sadly the disaster that is the Euro is no laughing matter.   And there was the instant “major negative shock” if the people of the UK had the temerity to vote Leave.  Well we did.  And the major negative shock is still awaited 15 months on.    

Of course these people always rewrite history.  "In spite of Brexit" usually is the theme as they revise their forecast in the opposite direction from their original forecasts.   And, like all good reports, they had a disclaimer. The outcome relating to leaving the EU “could prove more favourable than assumed here”.    The small print.  Tucked away.

Indeed, even the OCED’s most gloomy predictions now still predict the economy will grow in the event of no deal.  

And it is on these predictions that Cardiff Business School professor Patrick Minford has his questions about its modelling and assumptions, saying the OECD's negative findings were at odds with his own and others' workings, including Oxford Economics adviser Graham Gudgin.  "The OECD has always said we shouldn't leave the EU. It's pretty easy to see why, most of their members are in the EU - it's no mystery that they are going to have an institutional bias to find reasons to reject Brexit."

Many other people of sound mind are not enamoured by the OECD. And you can see why.  For example economist Ruth Lea CBE, again, nobody's fool when it comes to economics, thinks the OECD's findings were symptomatic of analysis that was "forever exaggerating the negative".     

Speaking to CityAM she said "I'm getting so tired of all this," adding "They’ve all got themselves in some kind of negative time warp. They were very negative prior to the referendum and can’t get out of that way of thinking. They're locked into this negative way of thinking.”   "A lot if it is because they feel they have to continue with this narrative to justify themselves and have some appearance of consistency. But it’s time they really began to change the narrative, move the dial - this country is leaving the EU and everyone has to now accept that."    

One final wee point.  I may have missed it, but I’m not sure I saw in the report the fact that the OECD has received an incredible £85,173,454.91 from the EU since 2007.  Just thought I'd mentinon it.