7.5%

Bank of England believes Brexit could cost 75,000 finance jobs.   So screamed the headline in an article on the BBC today.   It sounds bad news.  But, read on.  

Kamal Ahmed reckons 92.5% of financial services jobs will be safe after Brexit.  He argues that even if 75,000 jobs do go, London would still be by far the largest financial centre in Europe with over one million people employed in financial services in the capital and across the rest of Britain.   

And the UK would still enjoy a healthy trade surplus in financial services with the rest of the EU worth many tens of billions of pounds.    

Many also believe there will be a positive outcome to the EU negotiations as the City supports many governments and businesses on the continent in raising funds and executing global deals.   Those companies and firms would want to keep a close relationship with the UK and its well-developed global markets capacity.   That is what the article says, if you read that far.   

Funny how that side of the story is buried in the article.  92.5% of financial services jobs will be safe after Brexit would be a more honest but less eye catching headline.   

Anyway, the BoE under Mr Carney hasn’t the best of track records in its forecasting of late.