The fog of war. The fog of numbers.

What’s happening?  And why?   Who's figures are right?  And who's are wrong?  Is it that simple? 

Let’s start with the data from the Cambridge statistical unit that the Chief Scientific Advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance, relied on.

- The data was three weeks out of date.   More recent data from the same unit is less apocalyptic.  So why didn’t he use that?       

- The PHE/Cambridge model predicted 1,000 people a day would die by November 1st. They’re not. Therefore the model is invalid.     

- Prof Tim Spector’s KCL data is showing infections are “flatlining across the board”.      

- The Government has focused too much on worst case scenarios.     

- Government policy isn’t guided by the evidence; rather, it is massaging the evidence to justify the policy.      

- The Government is ignoring the costs of lockdowns, both economically and in terms of non-Covid deaths.      

- The PCR test identifies people as “positive” if they’ve had the virus three or four weeks ago and are no longer infectious.      

- If we go into a second lockdown, what’s the exit strategy? In Cornwall, for instance, there are only about 40 cases/day (out of a population of ~566,000), yet Cornwall is being forced to go into lockdown. So how low do case numbers have to be before we can come out of the lockdown?      

- Yes, the NHS is running at about 90-95% capacity, but that’s normal for this time of year. Why the panic?     

Not my words but those of Prof Carl Heneghan, Professor of Evidenced Based Medicine at University of Oxford.